RIMM Versus GOOG + AAPL

The land of Oz last night provided some fireworks for those of us who care about the goldmining sector when Newcrest made a hostile bid for Lihir Gold at a better-than 25% premium to the price it closed at the day before. (For what it's worth, PAAS paid over a 40% premium to acquire Aquiline.) Lihir rejected it and saw its stock price close about 4% higher than the Newcrest bid price.

I think that this is a harbinger of many more deals. That, as companies continue to turn to acquisitions because it's often a cheaper way to increase their reserves -- since it's so darned hard (and expensive) to find new deposits.

Continuing around the globe, I note that China was higher last night and has managed to climb back over its 200-day moving average. From an elementary technical basis, that market may be inclined to thwart the bubble bears, at least for the time being. Meantime, Europe was firmer last night as well, as were the Spooz, and in less than half an hour's time the indices had gained 1%, plus or minus, across the board.

Familiar Soundtrack from the Boise Boys
Turning to two corporate-earnings announcements that I was interested in, Micron indeed was successful at beat-the-number and the company waxed poetically as they made 38 cents vs. expectations of about 23 cents. And, the company did its usual shtick regarding how tight the DRAM market was going to be, etc., etc.

RIMM was unsuccessful at beat-the-number. It looks like they had to pull a few levers even to get to the number they reported. Revenues and earnings were on the light side, though margins expanded. Which led me to conclude that perhaps some reserves were reversed out and also confirmed my suspicions regarding last quarter, that they stuffed the channel to get to those numbers. They did manage to keep the guidance more or less in line, but I think that might prove to be a bridge too far this quarter.

Serial-Miss Mode
RIMM has been missing numbers on a regular basis and I believe that they're about to go into serial-miss mode. But for the most part, the dead-fish community drooled all over itself to try to rationalize the troubles for the quarter just reported as some sort of one-off problem, which of course it is not. The battle now shapes up as RIMM versus GOOG + AAPL -- which side would you like to bet on?

Turning back to the tape, the early afternoon saw sellers get the upper hand, and with 30 minutes to go the gains had mostly evaporated. But a late-day rally rescued the session, with the S&P gaining about 0.6% (though the Nasdaq was flattish).

On Jobs Data, Some Traders Will Hit Payday
Away from stocks, the piggys were heavy. Oil was higher. The dollar was weak, presumably as folks squared their positions in front of the holiday weekend and tomorrow's nonfarm payroll number. Dollar bulls have conjured up some pretty big estimates, and with the combination of weather, birth/death adjustments, and census workers, tomorrow's number will have a lot of moving parts.

But I find it interesting that the Liscio Report expects a print of just 95,000 workers, with 75,000 contributed by the census department. (For those who don't know, almost nobody is better on the small details of the economy than they are.) In any case, if their numbers are accurate, that will likely have ramifications in the FX market (and perhaps the metals market).

Today saw the metals higher as silver tacked on 2% to gold's 1%. Even gold stocks got into the act. Maybe the Newcrest bid will cause people to question their negative views on gold stocks generically. (The Rydex data I cited yesterday was incorrect. Rydex made the following fix to its own graph after I'd looked at it: Gold-stock assets are at a low level, but not below where they were during the fall of 2008.)
Lastly, in the inflation-watch department: While today's ISM survey beat the number (59.6 vs. expectations of 57), the prices-paid component really "crushed the number" (75 vs. 67.).

Index Close % Change
Dow 10927.07 +0.65
S&P 500 1178.1 +0.74
Nasdaq 2402.58 +0.19
Nasdaq 100 1959.56 +0.06
Russell 2000 683.98 +0.79
Sox Index 366.93 +0.1
Bank Index 52.44 +0.85
Dow Transports 4392.48 +0.41
Dow Utilities 383.02 +1.11
Nikkei 225 11244.4 +1.39
Gold - Front Month 1126.5 +1.08
Silver - Front Month 17.9 +2.11
Crude Oil 85.08 +1.58
Dollar Index 80.72 -0.44
Euro Spot 1.36 +0.56
Long Bond 20-year 115.88 -0.22
FOTM - Yen Spot 93.88 -0.44
4/1/2010 1:19:26 PM